Match 49 Prediction: Punjab Kings vs Chennai Super Kings in Chennai

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Punjab Kings take on Chennai Super Kings in IPL 2025 Match 49 on April 30, 2025, at MA Chidambaram Stadium, Chennai, starting at 7:30 PM IST. Punjab Kings, with five wins and one no-result from nine games, hold 11 points in fifth, coming off a no-result against Kolkata Knight Riders, posting 201/4. Chennai Super Kings, with two wins from nine, sit last with 4 points, after a 7-wicket loss to Sunrisers Hyderabad. Punjab Kings’ aggressive batting, led by Priyansh Arya and Shreyas Iyer, faces Chennai Super Kings’ spin-heavy attack, with Noor Ahmad and Ravindra Jadeja key. The slow, spin-friendly Chepauk pitch suits Chennai Super Kings, but Punjab Kings’ head-to-head dominance makes them favorites. Punjab Kings are predicted to win, leveraging their batting depth and recent form.

Table of Contents

Head-to-Head Stats

Punjab Kings and Chennai Super Kings have clashed 31 times in the IPL, with Chennai Super Kings leading 16-15. Punjab Kings have won 6 of the last 7 encounters, including an 18-run victory on April 8, 2025, in Mullanpur, defending 219/6. At Chepauk, Chennai Super Kings have won 7 of 10 games, but Punjab Kings triumphed in 2023, chasing 201, and 2024, chasing 163. Punjab Kings’ recent success gives them a slight edge, despite Chennai Super Kings’ home advantage.

Toss and Lineups

The toss is pivotal at Chepauk, where 3 of 5 games in 2025 were won by chasing teams.

Punjab Kings’ likely XI is Priyansh Arya, Prabhsimran Singh (wk), Shreyas Iyer (captain), Nehal Wadhera, Shashank Singh, Glenn Maxwell, Azmatullah Omarzai, Marco Jansen, Arshdeep Singh, Yuzvendra Chahal, Harpreet Brar, with impact sub Josh Inglis.

Chennai Super Kings’ likely XI is Shaik Rasheed, Ayush Mhatre, Deepak Hooda, Sam Curran, Ravindra Jadeja, Dewald Brevis, Shivam Dube, MS Dhoni (wk, captain), Noor Ahmad, Khaleel Ahmed, Matheesha Pathirana, with impact sub Anshul Kamboj. Lineups reflect recent performances.

Game Plan for PBKS

Punjab Kings will target 170-plus if batting first, with Priyansh Arya’s 389 runs and Shreyas Iyer’s 351 runs driving the top order against Chennai Super Kings’ spinners. Yuzvendra Chahal’s 15 wickets and Arshdeep Singh’s 10 wickets will aim to disrupt Chennai Super Kings’ middle order, like Shivam Dube, in the powerplay. If chasing, Punjab Kings’ openers and Glenn Maxwell’s 189 runs will counter Noor Ahmad’s 14 wickets, aiming to chase 160 in 19 overs.

Game Plan for CSK

Chennai Super Kings will rely on Ruturaj Gaikwad’s 271 runs and Dewald Brevis’ 198 runs to post or chase 160, with Ravindra Jadeja’s 132 runs adding depth. Noor Ahmad’s 14 wickets and Ravindra Jadeja’s 10 wickets will target Punjab Kings’ top order, like Priyansh Arya, early. If bowling first, Chennai Super Kings will use Matheesha Pathirana’s 12 wickets to exploit the slow pitch, aiming to restrict Punjab Kings below 150.

Pitch and Conditions

Chepauk’s black-soil pitch is slow, averaging 158 in first innings in 2025, with spinners taking 31 of 65 wickets at an economy of 7.8. Boundaries are 75m and 72m, favoring spin and reverse swing. Chasing teams won 3 of 5 games, but dew is unlikely with a 10% rain chance. The weather is clear, 32°C with 60% humidity, ensuring a full match.

Prediction

Punjab Kings are favored to win with a 65% probability, driven by their better form (5 wins vs CSK’s 2) and head-to-head edge (6/7 wins). Priyansh Arya’s 389 runs and Yuzvendra Chahal’s 15 wickets counter Chennai Super Kings’ spin attack, despite the spin-friendly pitch. Chennai Super Kings’ poor form and reliance on Noor Ahmad and Ravindra Jadeja may not match Punjab Kings’ batting depth. Expected score: Punjab Kings 165-175 (batting first) or chase 160 in 19 overs; Chennai Super Kings 150-160 or chase 160 in 20 overs.